I'm going a different direction with my blog. With Peter Tom Willis handling the weekly post-game columns, there isn't a need for me to write a detailed post-game analysis. That being said, there are still times I like to chip in a random thought or two on various issues surrounding the program. You probably won't get too many long drawn out breakdowns of a game or an issue, but instead the new blog will consist of a few thoughts on some hot topics. I've been posting some of this stuff recently on the message boards but noticed that a lot of people miss my comments or my post scrolls of the board too quickly.
Anyway, let's give this new and hopefully improved blog a shot.
Entry: 10/13 - How good is FSU?
For the angry vocal minority I referenced in my blog a couple weeks ago where are you now?
To refresh your memory, there were a few fans that went way overboard on the Warchant.com message boards following the disappointing loss to Wake Forest. Some said they were giving up on FSU, selling their tickets and insisted that FSU made a huge mistake pinning its future hopes on Jimbo Fisher. It's too early to say that the 'Noles have definitely turned it around, but nobody can deny that the whole team has made significant strides since the September 20th meltdown against the Deacons.
I'm sure we won't be hearing from this vocal minority until the next time FSU loses a game when I'm sure they will be out for blood again. But that's a given; what isn't a given is now that FSU has rattled off a couple quality wins have they finally turned some proverbial corner that we've all been waiting on for years?
We probably won't know the answer until late this year but the signs are certainly encouraging.
Say what you want about FSU's first couple games against bottom-dweller opponents, the truth is in the numbers - FSU has made significant improvements in several key areas since last season.
Take a look at a few key stat differences between 2007 and 2008:
* Rushing offense: 2007 (127.46 yards per game) / 2008 (231.60 yards per game) = an improvement of 104.14 yards per game.
* Total defense: 2007 (362 yards a game) / 2008 (230 yards a game) = an improvement of 132 yards per game.
* Third down conversions: 2007 (32.2%) / 2008 (51.6%) = a 61% improvement.
* Third down defense: 2007 (33.8%) / 2008 (19.4%) = 74% improvement.
* Red-zone scores/TDs: 2007 (81%/44%) / 2008 (91%/63.6%) = 13%/45% improvement.
* Sacks per game: 2007 (2.31) / 2008 (3.0) = an improvement of .69 sacks per game.
If you were to just look at the ACC statistical rankings, you would think FSU is running away with the conference. The 'Noles rank 1st in nine different categories including total offense and total defense.
While most of the major statistical categories show evidence of a major upgrade from last season, there are a couple negatives that are probably a function of having such a young team.
* Turnover margin: 2007 (+0.46 per game) / 2008 (-1.00 per game) = 1.46 turnover margin difference per game.
* Penalties per game: 2007 (8.3 per game / 66.9 yards) / 2008 (9.8 per game/90 yards) = 1.5 more penalties for 20.1 yards a game.
Numbers can be deceiving but it's hard to deny that the 2008 Seminoles have made significant strides since last year's 7-6 team. But because most of the team is so young (only five senior starters) there are bound to be significant highs and lows. But look at it this way, if FSU wins as expected this Thursday all they have to do is go .500 the rest of the way to get 8 regular season wins (9 with a bowl game win). Prior to the start of the season, most fans felt that 8 or 9 wins would be a pretty good season considering the early suspensions and FSU's relative youth. But were things go a little better than .500 the rest of the way then this truly could be the long awaited turnaround season.
Great post Gene! Most of the detractors are bandwagon fans still left over from the 90s. I remember a time when a lot of people were calling for Ward to be benched because he couldn't complete a pass to his own team--how did that work out? This program did not sink to this low in 2 seasons and will not return in that same timeframe. Those of us that love this program, school and area are proud of this edition of the Noles and look forward to further progress.
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ReplyDeleteI agree with everything you said with the exception of penalties. I think it's a non-issue. There's no statistical analysis to suggest that a team with more penalties is worse than a team with less penalties. Going by yardage the winning percentage is higher (though not by much) for teams penalized the most as opposed to the teams penalized the least. (Note: I used the top 20 on both side.) Currently teams with the fewest penalty yardage and ranked are Pittsburgh, Va Tech, Penn State, Vandy, Alabama, and Ball State. Those in the bottom half (FSU is last by the way) are USC, UGA, Oklahoma State, BYU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Utah.
ReplyDeleteThe penalties tend to speak towards an aggressive play style. Not all penalties are called and officials seem to want to try and balance out the calls for both teams in an attempt to seem partial.
Heck TC's INT against UM was pass interference that wasn't called and Everette Brown constantly guesses the snap count correctly (something he wouldn't try if he were afraid of penalties).
I'm not advocating late hits or anything egregious, just noting that penalties tend to speak to an aggressive play style that more often than not benefits the offender.
Evan, you hit it on the head.
ReplyDeleteThe traditional media harps on penalties because they don't know any better. TomahawkNation hit it on the head with their post. I wish more people would stop griping about penalties.
Based on how the schedule is playing out... We have a very legitimate shot of having only 1 loss when we go into our matchup with Florida.
ReplyDeleteBeat VaTech and who knows how far this team can go.
I love the noles. I always have. I'm not convinced. Who have we beaten? Colorado? Miami? Both are overrated teams, and they aren't rated very high. I personally want nothing more than a return to prominence, but at this point I don't see it. I see a passing game that is mediocre at BEST. Our running game has shown tons of improvement, and I'm thrilled about that. I personally think the running game is essential for the previously mentioned return. But until we achieve a. balance b. discipline and c. consistency we aren't back. And I'll be that guy who says right now, we're overrated too.
ReplyDeleteThe key word is improvement. For years it seemed that players weren't developing. I swear, Chris Rix never got better from his freshman year to his senior year.
ReplyDeleteChristian Ponder is maturing in front of our eyes. With a solid running game and his improvement, I look for the passing game to improve.
I think the future is bright....very bright.
I hope most Nole fans would agree that we're "back" when we start beating quality opponents on a regular basis again like the great FSU teams did. By that standard, with just 2 wins against D-1 teams (who both have only won half their games) IMO it's premature to speculate about being back or turning the corner.
ReplyDeleteCory -- If we were ranked, then I'd say we are overrated. But since we're not, I think we're "rated" right where we need to be. Voters are putting us on the outside looking in, waiting for us to prove that we belong. I have full confidence that we will belong among the top 25, even top 10, very soon. The stats aren't anomalies.
ReplyDeleteFor those that posted about penalties being a non issue I could not disagree with you more. I don't mind a few penalties or penalties from being aggressive, but false starts, late hits, delay of game penalties to me are inexcusible. Penalties might not tell if a team is worse than the other, but they do factor into the outcomes of games.
ReplyDeleteYes, they factor into a game, but so does the aggressive play that produces them. Like I mentioned TC's INT could have been called pass interference. Even if it was it would have been a good penalty as 15 yards is better than a TD. Sure, I'd rather have them play just as well with fewer penalties, but I wouldn't sacrfice any of the aggressiveness that produces those penalties.
ReplyDeleteI do agree that the delay of game and false start penalties are not needed though.
Nice blog dot. As for those Nole fans boo-hooing about the Wake Forest loss, we see that every year. Its one of the reasons I don't post in the WC boards anymore because I'm tired of these 'loyal' fans taking cheap shots at the players and/or coaches.
ReplyDeleteFSU looks remarkably better than they did last year. The stats prove that themselves. I wouldn't consider the Wake Forest game a meltdown, more like a bump in the road. The defense played hard that came, and had we played it again later in the season I wouldn't hesitate to place my bet on FSU winning.
As for those who think penalties are a 'non-issue' that is ridiculous. FSU needs to work harder on cutting down the penalties and giving their opponents free yards. Do penalties mean a team is worse than their opponent? No. Do they reflect on their coaching? No. These penalties are coming from young men who are still getting their feet wet and adjusting to a higher level of game.
I will always be a life-long Seminole fan, no matter what their win loss record looks like. Patience is needed by all, so everyone can enjoy the end result. Because if we keep up the consistant level of play, we will all remember why we are all fans of the great Seminole Nation.
Go Noles!
This season can go a long ways toward restoring some respect to the program. Beating the likes of Va Tech, Clemson, Ga tech, BC, and Florida would really put us back on the national stage for next year. Remember pre-season polls mean alot(Auburn had to lose 3 times b4 falling out of the polls b/c of the pre-season polls). There will be plenty of remaining talent(19 returning starters) next year to challenge for a national championship IMO. The OL will be more mature, QB will be more experienced, the defense will be senior-laden, the WRs will have much more time with the scheme, plus the team will have plenty of youngsters(Bradham, Forston, Easterling, JThomas, TJones, VWilliams, etc) on the rise. We'll also have a top5 recruiting class coming in. Unless we falter for the remainder of the season, the future looks pretty bright in Tallahassee.
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