I'm going a different direction with my blog. With Peter Tom Willis handling the weekly post-game columns, there isn't the same need for me to do a detailed post-game analysis after each game. That being said, there are still times I like to chip in a random thought or two on various issues surrounding the program. You probably won't get too many long drawn out breakdowns of a game or an issue, but instead the new blog will consist of a few thoughts on some hot topics. I've been posting some of this stuff recently on the message boards but noticed that a lot of people miss my comments or my post scrolls of the board too quickly (it seems like a waste of time to post the same thing over and over).
Entry: 11/18 - Parting shot on the FSU-BC game
The loss to Boston College was the first setback of the season that really stung. Against Wake Forest it was obvious that FSU was just a very young team that still had some growing up to do. And every fan felt like FSU should have won the Georgia Tech game except that the Jackets had an unusual offensive scheme and that bad luck with the untimely fumble at the end made the difference. But FSU lost on Saturday to a slow BC team that had no business pulling off the upset. It was a dismal performance on both sides of the ball in a game that could have been huge for the program since Wake Forest lost earlier in the day.
I'm more or less willing to give the offense a pass for having a down game. Don't get me wrong, I would have liked to see Jimbo Fisher stick with the run a little more than he did and the ultimate fault for the loss may lie with the five offensive players that were suspended for the game (both from missing three major offensive weapons and the distraction it caused the team). But just a week ago we all thought the offense was a year ahead of schedule. When you have the youngest offensive line in college football and a rookie quarterback, there are bound to be ups and downs. But until last Saturday we hadn't seen many of the downs.
Even a football novice could see that the FSU offensive line was getting manhandled which was a major reason why nothing was working. The fact is that it's not all that surprising that the OL got worked against the Eagles. One reason why most OLs in college are made up of junior and seniors is so they can physically compete with large, athletic and physical defensive fronts. Until Saturday, Rick Trickett's undersized and youthful OL was able to get by using their superior quickness and employing near perfect technique. Against BC's mammoth defensive tackles it wasn't enough. A year or two from now, when the OL has the chance to physically develop and add size and muscle, matchups like this won't be a problem.
The offense has made major strides this season and with youth all around the future is very bright. I noticed that a few fans quickly forgot how far the offense has come since the Jeff Bowden years. Every offense will have a down game or two so look at FSU's progress as a whole this season and don't judge them by one off game.
On the other hand, I can't give the defense a pass. The starting lineup consists of five seniors and six juniors, most of whom entered the season with starting experience. And entering last Saturday's game, the group on defense was probably as healthy as it had been all season. And depending on who you listen to, there are probably four or five starters that will find a place in the NFL. To see Mickey Andrews' squad get beat down by a simplistic scheme with an average quarterback and very few playmakers in a game of huge importance was disgusting.
And don't even try to make the argument that BC really only scored 20 points (7 was on pick-six) and FSU's offense was at fault for not scoring enough. Every offense is going to have an off game and when that happens it's up to the defense to step up and carry the load. Regardless of the points on the board or the final yardage numbers, BC totally controlled the game and pushed around the veteran Seminole defense all night. There are a couple stats that tell the story much more than points or yards - Time of possession (BC 38:07 to FSU 21:53) and third down conversions (BC 9 of 16). You are asking too much of any offense, especially a very young one that has a major disadvantage at the line of scrimmage, to carry the load when they are spending most of the game on the bench. To compare to the Clemson game, FSU's offense got three fewer possessions than the week before (and one of those possessions was with just 20 seconds left at the end of the game).
Unfortunately, the poor performance by the defense against BC wasn't an aberration.
There are still those that point to statistics and will argue that the Seminole defense has been outstanding this season. This is truly a case where statistics can be very deceiving. Yes, FSU currently ranks 5th in total defense, 28th in rushing defense, 9th in passing defense, and 30th in scoring defense. However, if you throw out the first three games which were against two Division 1AA weaklings and Wake Forest (easily the worst offense in the ACC), the numbers tell a very different story. The scoring defense average would balloon to 26 points a game which would put FSU into a tie with Louisville at No. 70 in that category. Instead of boasting the No. 1 total defense in the ACC, FSU would drop to 5th behind BC, Miami, Georgia Tech and Clemson (from No. 5 nationally to No. 23). And FSU's vaunted rushing defense would plummet from No. 23 all the way 57 in a tie with Notre Dame.
Sorry, but the Seminole defense isn't what it's cracked up to be.
Mickey Andrews has proved himself time and time again to be one of the best defensive coordinators in college football. I still think he has a lot to offer but maybe it's time for him, Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher to sit down in the off-season and consider making some changes. Sometimes you can have good players on a team but the chemistry isn't right between them. Maybe there's a chemistry problem with the defensive coaching staff, and maybe it's time to shake things up a bit.
Game-watching party in Tallahassee this Saturday
If you live in the Tallahassee area I would like to invite you to come out to the Corner Pocket Bar & Grill on Apalachee Parkway this Saturday for the Warchant.com FSU-Maryland Game Watching Party. The Warchant.com Cowgirls will be in attendance to take photos and sign the Girls of Capital City Calendar. A special VIP package is available for the event with all the proceeds going to the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. It all starts at 7:00 p.m. so see you there!
Related stories/Features to check out:
Warchant TV: Trickett on the state of the OL
Insider Report: Putting last week behind themPT's Column: Soundly Beaten
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Parting shot on the FSU-BC game
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The Incident
I'm going a different direction with my blog. With Peter Tom Willis handling the weekly post-game columns, there isn't the same need for me to do a detailed post-game analysis after each game. That being said, there are still times I like to chip in a random thought or two on various issues surrounding the program. You probably won't get too many long drawn out breakdowns of a game or an issue, but instead the new blog will consist of a few thoughts on some hot topics. I've been posting some of this stuff recently on the message boards but noticed that a lot of people miss my comments or my post scrolls of the board too quickly (it seems like a waste of time to post the same thing over and over).
Entry: 11/13 - The "Incident"
Even though this is Homecoming week and there's a key conference matchup this Saturday against Boston College, another off the field incident has stolen the headlines and dominated the chatter on the Warchant.com message boards. I'll simply refer to the altercation that broke out at FSU's Student Union on Wednesday as the "incident".
We've all been down this path several times before and it follows a similar pattern. News of an off the field incident leaks out and fans begin to speculate and rumor-monger about exactly what happened. Next, some like to jump to conclusions and assume the worst while others will absolve anybody associated with Florida State. Finally, the blame game gets going and the finger pointing begins. It doesn't matter who as long as there is somebody to direct a pitchfork at.
What is amusing about this pattern is that it always seems to happen without anybody truly knowing what happened. The "incident" is no different.
Over the last 30 hours or so I've heard dozens of versions of exactly what went down at the Student Union on Wednesday. However, every version is either slightly different or in some cases very different.
For fans, situations like this can be extremely frustrating because everybody craves instant information. And at Warchant.com we generally feed this monster when it comes to Florida State football. But in the case it isn't as simple as just offering up the facts. Sure, what we've been hearing from the FSU camp paints a general picture of what happened. It would be easy for us to just report that version of the events, which some actually did, and let our readers take it from there. However, that would be irresponsible.
I spoke to a representative of Phi Beta Sigma fraternity on Thursday and he gave an account of what took place at the Union on Wednesday that drastically differed from what we've been hearing from the FSU camp. No surprise, but who's version is correct, or is the truth somewhere in the middle?
The reason I'm bringing this up is to hopefully explain to our readers how difficult it is for us to disseminate accurate information, and do so responsibly, when these types of incidents come up. We could give one side of the events from people that don't want to go on the record, which would be irresponsible, or just give the facts as we know them, which are usually pretty vague at the outset. As a result, we are left with what the police discover through their investigation, which is the only that that really matters in the end since that is what FSU will rely on when deciding on any punishments.
So as difficult as it is, my suggestion is to ignore the chatter from so-called insiders about what really happened and just try to be patient until the police report comes out.
While I'm not going to give out any inside scoop on what I've heard happened at the "incident" since I wasn't there and I haven't seen any video (everything else is hearsay), I do believe that one or more of the players involved won't escape unscathed. There will be some punishments handed down. Whether that will happen before this Saturday's game of next Saturday, and how severe the punishments will be, remains to be seen.
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Monday, October 13, 2008
How good is FSU?
I'm going a different direction with my blog. With Peter Tom Willis handling the weekly post-game columns, there isn't a need for me to write a detailed post-game analysis. That being said, there are still times I like to chip in a random thought or two on various issues surrounding the program. You probably won't get too many long drawn out breakdowns of a game or an issue, but instead the new blog will consist of a few thoughts on some hot topics. I've been posting some of this stuff recently on the message boards but noticed that a lot of people miss my comments or my post scrolls of the board too quickly.
Anyway, let's give this new and hopefully improved blog a shot.
Entry: 10/13 - How good is FSU?
For the angry vocal minority I referenced in my blog a couple weeks ago where are you now?
To refresh your memory, there were a few fans that went way overboard on the Warchant.com message boards following the disappointing loss to Wake Forest. Some said they were giving up on FSU, selling their tickets and insisted that FSU made a huge mistake pinning its future hopes on Jimbo Fisher. It's too early to say that the 'Noles have definitely turned it around, but nobody can deny that the whole team has made significant strides since the September 20th meltdown against the Deacons.
I'm sure we won't be hearing from this vocal minority until the next time FSU loses a game when I'm sure they will be out for blood again. But that's a given; what isn't a given is now that FSU has rattled off a couple quality wins have they finally turned some proverbial corner that we've all been waiting on for years?
We probably won't know the answer until late this year but the signs are certainly encouraging.
Say what you want about FSU's first couple games against bottom-dweller opponents, the truth is in the numbers - FSU has made significant improvements in several key areas since last season.
Take a look at a few key stat differences between 2007 and 2008:
* Rushing offense: 2007 (127.46 yards per game) / 2008 (231.60 yards per game) = an improvement of 104.14 yards per game.
* Total defense: 2007 (362 yards a game) / 2008 (230 yards a game) = an improvement of 132 yards per game.
* Third down conversions: 2007 (32.2%) / 2008 (51.6%) = a 61% improvement.
* Third down defense: 2007 (33.8%) / 2008 (19.4%) = 74% improvement.
* Red-zone scores/TDs: 2007 (81%/44%) / 2008 (91%/63.6%) = 13%/45% improvement.
* Sacks per game: 2007 (2.31) / 2008 (3.0) = an improvement of .69 sacks per game.
If you were to just look at the ACC statistical rankings, you would think FSU is running away with the conference. The 'Noles rank 1st in nine different categories including total offense and total defense.
While most of the major statistical categories show evidence of a major upgrade from last season, there are a couple negatives that are probably a function of having such a young team.
* Turnover margin: 2007 (+0.46 per game) / 2008 (-1.00 per game) = 1.46 turnover margin difference per game.
* Penalties per game: 2007 (8.3 per game / 66.9 yards) / 2008 (9.8 per game/90 yards) = 1.5 more penalties for 20.1 yards a game.
Numbers can be deceiving but it's hard to deny that the 2008 Seminoles have made significant strides since last year's 7-6 team. But because most of the team is so young (only five senior starters) there are bound to be significant highs and lows. But look at it this way, if FSU wins as expected this Thursday all they have to do is go .500 the rest of the way to get 8 regular season wins (9 with a bowl game win). Prior to the start of the season, most fans felt that 8 or 9 wins would be a pretty good season considering the early suspensions and FSU's relative youth. But were things go a little better than .500 the rest of the way then this truly could be the long awaited turnaround season.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Entry: Radio Note - I'll be on Jeff Cameron's show Thursday at 4:05 PM previewing the FSU-Colorado game. You can Listen live at this link. If you miss it, you can go to 1270theteam.com later and check the audio archives.
Entry: Tailgate Party - If you are headed to Jacksonville this Saturday for the game make sure to stop by the Warchant.com/JSC Tailgate Party. It starts at 11:30 AM. We'll have food, beer and it should be a great time. The Party will be located right by the stadium at 1010 E. Adams Street (across from the Baseball Grounds). In addition to the beautiful Warchant.com Cowgirls being there, the FSU Cheerleaders are also making an appearance. Link to map / Link for more info on the Tailgate Party.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
ENTRY: 9/23/08: Stop with the Georgia comparisons
Even after the normal 24 to 48 venting period some fans are continuing to have a knee-jerk reaction to Saturday's loss. It was a devastating setback for the program and the offense laid a big fat whopping egg. Nobody is denying that, but some of the negativism and mean-spiritedness towards the players and coaches on the message boards is a bit maddening. And I'm not talking about most fans, just a very vocal minority that feels they need to blast FSU when something doesn't go right or as they expected.
One thing I've noticed this vocal minority has harped on is that FSU's inexperience on offense, which the coaches and some in the media have cited as the primary reason for Saturday's meltdown, is just another excuse. As support for this argument some have pointed to Georgia's inexperienced offense, specifically the line, last year. Despite the youth up front the Bulldogs turned in a stellar 11-2 season in 2007. While that sounds like a reasonable argument on the surface, it really isn't.
As with FSU, Georgia's offense failed in its first real game of 2007. Against a South Carolina team that finished 6-6 (Wake is a much better) the Bulldogs, behind an OL with three freshmen failed to score a single touchdown and lost to Steve Spurrier's bunch 16-12. They then squeaked by Alabama a couple weeks later (26-23) - the same Alabama team FSU beat 21-14 the following week. UGA then got creamed by Tennessee 35-14 a couple weeks later. It wasn't until a win over Florida on October 27th (more than halfway into the season) that the offense actually did something against a quality opponent.
Young players with a lot of talent and good coaching tend to have a steeper learning curve than older players so they may not play well when they first face quality competition but will improve quickly. If FSU's offense is still stumbling and bumbling eight games into the season then there may be some room to complain and question the coaching and/or talent on offense. But after one game? Come on.
There's another big difference between FSU's OL this year and Georgia's last year - the Bulldogs had two seasoned senior OLs to anchor the line and bring the younger guys along. FSU has no such luxury this year - they have two sophomores and three freshmen (and have had a former wide receiver walk-on at tight end). And as the publisher of UGASports.com told me yesterday, they never had a situation (not in 07 or 08) where two freshmen started at both tackle positions - something FSU had versus Wake last Saturday.
And in cased you missed it UGA has a pretty good tailback in Knowshon Moreno. No offense to Antone Smith and company but Moreno is in a different league. There's nobody currently on FSU's roster that can run like him (at least not yet) and does anybody doubt that FSU's running game would be dramatically improved if he were on the roster? I think FSU has some pretty good young running backs on the roster and hopefully they will blossom this season (it's too bad Pressley blew out his knee in preseason practices).
Finally, quarterback Matthew Stafford has been playing extensively since his freshman season and was a veteran by his sophomore season in 2007. On the other hand, Christian Ponder saw one half of football in 2007 and D'Vontrey Richardson got a total of two snaps.
What should be encouraging to Seminole Nation is that a team that was a similar position as FSU with an inexperienced but talented offense started out slowly in 2007 but showed dramatic improvement as the season went on. FSU's situation youth wise is more extreme than UGA's was, and I'm not going even hint that FSU's 2008 season will follow a pattern that Georgia did last year, but to play the blame game and/or give up on what is primarily a bunch of rookies after their first game against a D1-A opponent is beyond absurd.
No matter what anybody else says, my guess is that most of vocal minority will still pounce on every misstep by the football program and will always be looking for someone to blame. While I disagree with the gloom and doom bunch, I do understand their frustration. It's tough to stay patient following the last few seasons of mediocrity. But most people around the program really believe the problems that haunted FSU football the last few years have been identified and the appropriate changes made. Some programs make a quicker turnaround than others. I'm not sure how long it will take for the true turnaround to kick in for FSU but it will happen.
ENTRY: 9/21/08: King Kool-Aid
I really believe the saying that you are never as good you think after a win and never as bad as you think after a loss.
We learned last night that Florida State isn't as good as we thought they were after their first two wins, but by the same token they probably aren't as bad as they looked against Wake Forest. I don't think there's a big X's and O's analysis to make, last night was simply a case of a young offense soiling its diapers on the big stage. There has been a nice upgrade in playmakers, the offensive line has an outstanding young group that is headed in the right direction, the quarterbacks are more talented and the staff has the players working harder and doing the right things.
We all tend to evaluate a team based on recruiting rankings, strength numbers and 40-times but, and coaches always say it, you can't do anything without executing on offense. Wake has very average talent on offense but their execution is near perfect. FSU has superior talent on offense but their execution last night was horrible, which is most likely a result of having so many young players with very little experience on that side of the ball - especially when they are going up against a defense made up of mostly fifth year seniors.
I know after such a build up for what was supposed to be FSU's breakout game, everybody in Seminole nation is extremely disappointed and some are downright angry. But this is an extremely young offense that will only get better and you have to expect that they will learn from their mistakes and continue to improve at the season goes on. And as much as it's easy knock Wake Forest and say they aren't a legitimate team because they don't have big time recruits on the team, nearly half of that defense could taken in next April's NFL draft (that may be the best defense FSU goes against all season).
Call me King Kool-Aid if you want, but I really think by the end of the season FSU fans will be pretty happy with the product that is on the field.
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